Beyond Rio: Sustainable energy scenarios for the 21st century

Reaching the economic, environmental and sustainability objectives of all societies requires overcoming several major energy challenges; it necessitates rapid progress in multiple areas. The scenario pathways presented in this paper describe transformative changes toward these goals, taking a broad view of the four main energy challenges faced by society in the 21st century: providing universal access to modern energy for all; reducing the impacts of energy production on human health and the environment; avoiding dangerous climate change; and enhancing energy security. The overarching objective of the paper is to provide policy guidance on how to facilitate the transformation of the energy system to achieve these multiple energy objectives. Particular focus is given to the required pace of the transformation at both the global and regional levels, and to the types of financial and policy measures that will be needed to ensure a successful transition. Synergies and trade‐offs between the objectives are identified, and co‐benefits quantified. The paper makes an important contribution to the scenario literature by approaching the global transition toward sustainable development in a more integrated, holistic manner than is common in other studies.     

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.     

供风量对褐煤自燃极限参数的影响研究

为研究不同供风量对褐煤自燃特性的影响规律，选取平庄瑞安煤矿褐煤作为试验煤样，利用程序升温试验和气相色谱仪，研究低温氧化阶段不同供风量条件下褐煤自燃极限参数与温度、供风量之间的变化规律。结果表明:温度在40~120℃时，随着供风量增大，褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低，上限漏风强度增加；温度在120~200℃，供风量为40~80 mL/min和160~200 mL/min时，随着供风量的增加，其最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度增加，上限漏风强度减少；供风量为80~160 mL/min时，在供风量增大的情况下，褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低，上限漏风强度增加；随着供风量减小，煤样临界点温度降低。     

Consumption-based emissions accounting: the normative debate

ABSTRACT

The normative debate surrounding consumption-based emissions accounting, conceived of as a method for constructing national emissions inventories, is investigated. The focus is to examine whether such accounting would be more just than the current method of production-based accounting. It is argued that there is no good reason to think that consumption-based accounting would be less just, and some reason to think that it would be more just. The consequences of this for the overall question of whether to adopt consumption-based accounting are also investigated.     

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

基于可拓云理论的泥炭质土场地沉降风险评价

为更好地研究泥炭质土场地地铁车站基坑周边沉降问题,预测和评估施工时及施工后的沉降风险,在分析了泥炭质土的特点后,选择土层厚度、有机质质量分数、重度、天然含水率、孔隙比、土层埋深和压缩模量7个指标,建立沉降风险评估指标体系,并根据改进层次分析法和改进熵权法求出主观权重与客观权重,最后用理想点法耦合主客观权重求出各评价指标的综合权重;根据沉降等级分类标准,生成每个评价指标的云滴图,计算得到各评价因子的可拓云矩阵,进而将综合权重向量与可拓云矩阵相乘得到综合确定度,根据综合确定度最大原则确定样本沉降风险等级。以昆明某地铁车站施工监测数据为例,用建立的可拓云模型对泥炭质土场地的沉降风险进行评价,最终评价结果与实际监测结果吻合较好,验证了分析方法的合理性及可行性。该评价方法充分考虑了多种因素影响,明确了沉降的风险等级,评价结果为泥炭土场地上建(构)筑物的设计施工及应急处理提供了理论依据。     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

重庆四面山杉木林优势种群径级结构与空间分布格局

种群空间格局分析有利于更好地理解格局形成的潜在生态过程。本研究以重庆四面山杉木林为研究对象,采用单变量和双变量函数分析了样地中杉木林主要种群的空间分布格局以及种群间的空间关联性。结果表明:(1)四面山杉木林共调查到乔木65种、灌木31种、草本20种。杉木种群径级结构呈衰退型,表现为以大树为主,中树次之,无小树;腺萼马银花、元江栲、细枝柃等种群径级结构呈增长型,表现为以小树、中树为主,大树次之。(2)在0~25 m尺度内,杉木种群呈随机分布,栲和元江栲呈聚集分布,而腺萼马银花、细枝柃、光叶山矾和长蕊杜鹃等4个种群则在小尺度下呈聚集分布,随着尺度的增大,呈现出随机分布的趋势。(3)生物学特性以及生境因子的差异导致杉木林主要种群间空间关联差异较大,杉木与元江栲和腺萼马银花种群之间呈负相关,而与光叶山矾、栲和长蕊杜鹃种群呈无相关,因此,在该区杉木纯林的近自然改造上,应优先考虑竞争力强的乡土树种,如长蕊杜鹃、栲、光叶山矾等进行混交。     

Assessing impacts on urban greenspace,waterways, and vegetation in urban planning

Parks, waterways, and vegetation enhance the well-being of urbanites and thus warrant consideration in planning and policy-making. It is, however, difficult to assess how land-use change may impact these features and how this in turn may impact well-being. I use a case-study approach to present a framework that combines geospatial and economic valuation techniques to generate indicators of the effects of land-use policies that alter these amenities on community well-being. This framework quantifies the impacts of land-use change on urban environmental amenities in a way that could help communities plan land use so as to maintain well-being as they urbanise.